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Psychological Analysis of Fear-Based Healthcare Messaging: Comparing HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 Through the Lens of Spiral Dynamics

Dr. Tomás Campbell [1], a member of the BPS Division of Clinical Psychology Faculty for HIV and Sexual Health, article "Towards more inclusive and Empowering Healthcare Campaigns" [2] presents a compelling analysis of the evolution of HIV/AIDS messaging over four decades, tracing a path from fear-based approaches to more empowering, inclusive strategies. This progression reflects significant advances in both medical understanding and psychological approaches to public health communication. 

The SDTEST® survey data on fears provides an excellent opportunity to examine how these evolving messaging strategies align with contemporary fear psychology and value systems as described by Spiral Dynamics theory.


Comparative Analysis of HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 Fear Prevalence


The SDTEST® survey "Fears" involving 3,679 participants across 105 countries reveals that HIV/AIDS now ranks relatively low at 4%, while COVID-19 ranks even lower at just 2%. Below is a abridged version of the survey results. The full results are available for free in the FAQ section after login or registration.


Strahovi

ChartsKorelacija
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Ovdje je odnos između odgovora ankete i spiralne testne boje dinamike
VUCA
?
Evo novog sučelja za korelaciju u tablici po nivoima spirale dinamike u kojima se volatilnost, nesigurnost, složenost i dvosmislenost (V.U.C.A.) prikazuju putem pozitivne i negativne korelacijske ovise između odgovora ankete i spiralne dinamike
zemlja
jezik
-
Mail
Preračunati
Kritične vrijednosti koeficijenta korelacije
Normalna distribucija, William Sealy Gosset (student) r = 0.0315
Normalna distribucija, William Sealy Gosset (student) r = 0.0315
Non Normalna distribucija, od Spearman r = 0.0013
DistribucijaNe
normalno
Ne
normalno
Ne
normalno
NormalanNormalanNormalanNormalanNormalan
Sva pitanja
Sva pitanja
Moj najveći strah je
Moj najveći strah je
Answer 1-
Slabo pozitivno
0.0521
Slabo pozitivno
0.0249
Slab negativan
-0.0199
Slabo pozitivno
0.0936
Slabo pozitivno
0.0391
Slab negativan
-0.0148
Slab negativan
-0.1534
Answer 2-
Slabo pozitivno
0.0159
Slab negativan
-0.0089
Slab negativan
-0.0381
Slabo pozitivno
0.0645
Slabo pozitivno
0.0506
Slabo pozitivno
0.0138
Slab negativan
-0.0948
Answer 3-
Slab negativan
-0.0030
Slab negativan
-0.0098
Slab negativan
-0.0461
Slab negativan
-0.0428
Slabo pozitivno
0.0498
Slabo pozitivno
0.0769
Slab negativan
-0.0227
Answer 4-
Slabo pozitivno
0.0444
Slabo pozitivno
0.0306
Slab negativan
-0.0264
Slabo pozitivno
0.0170
Slabo pozitivno
0.0379
Slabo pozitivno
0.0264
Slab negativan
-0.1038
Answer 5-
Slabo pozitivno
0.0221
Slabo pozitivno
0.1235
Slabo pozitivno
0.0109
Slabo pozitivno
0.0745
Slabo pozitivno
0.0005
Slab negativan
-0.0156
Slab negativan
-0.1745
Answer 6-
Slab negativan
-0.0017
Slabo pozitivno
0.0038
Slab negativan
-0.0623
Slab negativan
-0.0105
Slabo pozitivno
0.0261
Slabo pozitivno
0.0857
Slab negativan
-0.0357
Answer 7-
Slabo pozitivno
0.0106
Slabo pozitivno
0.0311
Slab negativan
-0.0670
Slab negativan
-0.0305
Slabo pozitivno
0.0537
Slabo pozitivno
0.0708
Slab negativan
-0.0526
Answer 8-
Slabo pozitivno
0.0654
Slabo pozitivno
0.0686
Slab negativan
-0.0273
Slabo pozitivno
0.0121
Slabo pozitivno
0.0398
Slabo pozitivno
0.0177
Slab negativan
-0.1335
Answer 9-
Slabo pozitivno
0.0751
Slabo pozitivno
0.1592
Slabo pozitivno
0.0058
Slabo pozitivno
0.0603
Slab negativan
-0.0071
Slab negativan
-0.0483
Slab negativan
-0.1823
Answer 10-
Slabo pozitivno
0.0748
Slabo pozitivno
0.0607
Slab negativan
-0.0133
Slabo pozitivno
0.0271
Slabo pozitivno
0.0335
Slab negativan
-0.0111
Slab negativan
-0.1345
Answer 11-
Slabo pozitivno
0.0630
Slabo pozitivno
0.0502
Slab negativan
-0.0090
Slabo pozitivno
0.0091
Slabo pozitivno
0.0284
Slabo pozitivno
0.0253
Slab negativan
-0.1283
Answer 12-
Slabo pozitivno
0.0422
Slabo pozitivno
0.0887
Slab negativan
-0.0330
Slabo pozitivno
0.0325
Slabo pozitivno
0.0357
Slabo pozitivno
0.0264
Slab negativan
-0.1533
Answer 13-
Slabo pozitivno
0.0697
Slabo pozitivno
0.0916
Slab negativan
-0.0388
Slabo pozitivno
0.0294
Slabo pozitivno
0.0443
Slabo pozitivno
0.0156
Slab negativan
-0.1640
Answer 14-
Slabo pozitivno
0.0812
Slabo pozitivno
0.0861
Slab negativan
-0.0041
Slab negativan
-0.0125
Slabo pozitivno
0.0080
Slabo pozitivno
0.0148
Slab negativan
-0.1207
Answer 15-
Slabo pozitivno
0.0552
Slabo pozitivno
0.1224
Slab negativan
-0.0344
Slabo pozitivno
0.0113
Slab negativan
-0.0136
Slabo pozitivno
0.0265
Slab negativan
-0.1154
Answer 16-
Slabo pozitivno
0.0704
Slabo pozitivno
0.0202
Slab negativan
-0.0388
Slab negativan
-0.0399
Slabo pozitivno
0.0745
Slabo pozitivno
0.0185
Slab negativan
-0.0765


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Uredu

This modest fear prevalence contrasts sharply with the historical positioning of HIV/AIDS as a primary existential threat during the 1980s-90s. As the article aptly notes, early HIV/AIDS campaigns relied heavily on fear-based messaging, leveraging protection-motivation theory to drive behavioral change through graphic depictions of mortality and disease. The current survey results suggest these diseases have been partially normalized in the public consciousness, supporting the article's observation that medical advancements have transformed HIV from a death sentence to a manageable chronic condition.


When examining broader fear contexts, it's noteworthy that personal concerns about "illness of relatives and children" (11%) and general "illness" (8%) outrank specific disease fears like HIV/AIDS or COVID-19. This pattern indicates that abstract illness threats generate more anxiety than particular diseases that have been subject to extensive public education campaigns. This finding aligns with the article's discussion of how healthcare messaging has evolved toward destigmatization and normalization, particularly for HIV/AIDS.


Spiral Dynamics Correlations: Understanding Value Systems and Fear Responses


The correlation data between disease fears and Spiral Dynamics stages provides fascinating insights into how different value systems engage with health threats. HIV/AIDS shows a positive correlation (0.0662) with Orange-level thinking, which represents achievement-oriented, strategic value systems. This alignment makes psychological sense, as Orange thinking prioritizes personal agency and risk management. Individuals operating from this value system may respond more actively to diseases perceived as consequences of personal behavior choices.


Conversely, HIV/AIDS fears correlate negatively with Yellow (-0.0516) and more strongly with Turquoise (-0.1776) value systems. These second-tier thinking systems in Spiral Dynamics represent more complex, integrative worldviews that may contextualize disease within a broader systemic understanding. The stronger negative correlation with Turquoise thinking is particularly notable, as this holistic perspective tends to integrate mortality and vulnerability into a comprehensive worldview, potentially reducing fear responses to specific conditions.


For COVID-19, the correlation pattern differs significantly. The positive correlation with Green thinking (0.0637) suggests that communitarian, egalitarian value systems may experience heightened concern about highly communicable diseases that threaten community well-being. This aligns with the article's discussion of how modern healthcare campaigns increasingly emphasize collective responsibility and community protection. The negative correlations with Blue (-0.0342), Orange (-0.0409), and Turquoise (-0.0748) value systems suggest varied psychological responses across the spiral.


Implications for Evolving Healthcare Messaging


The article chronicles a shift from fear-based campaigns toward empowerment and behavioral strategies, noting how psychological frameworks like self-efficacy theory and social norm theory have informed this evolution. The SDTEST® data supports the efficacy of this shift by demonstrating relatively low fear ratings for HIV/AIDS despite its historical stigma. This suggests that destigmatizing, empowering messaging approaches may have successfully normalized the condition in public consciousness.


The varying correlations between fears and Spiral Dynamics stages also validate the article's emphasis on intersectionality and tailored messaging. Different value systems appear to process disease threats through distinct psychological frameworks, which has significant implications for public health communication. The article notes that "campaigns are now much more carefully designed to address diverse populations," which aligns with the need to consider value system diversity in designing effective interventions.


Advancing Psychologically Informed Healthcare Communications


The relatively weak correlation between disease fears and specific Spiral Dynamics stages (with the critical value of the correlation coefficient for a normal distribution, by William Sealy Gosset (Student) r = 0.0323) suggests that fears of HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 transcend value systems but manifest differently within them. This finding supports the article's conclusion that messaging must "remain effective, compassionate, and mindful of nuance." The positive correlation between HIV/AIDS fears and Orange thinking, contrasted with COVID-19's positive correlation with Green thinking, demonstrates how different diseases activate different value concerns.


The article's discussion of digital and social media platforms as vectors for modern healthcare messaging presents opportunities for even more targeted value-specific communications. Understanding the psychological frameworks through which different Spiral Dynamics stages process health information could enable micro-targeted campaigns that resonate more effectively with diverse audiences. For instance, messaging aimed at Orange-dominant thinkers might emphasize personal agency and achievement in health management, while Green-focused messaging might highlight community protection and collective responsibility.


Conclusion


The evolution of HIV/AIDS messaging described in the article reflects a sophisticated understanding of psychological principles, moving from protection-motivation theory toward self-efficacy and social norm approaches. The SDTEST® data validates this progression by showing relatively modest contemporary fear responses to HIV/AIDS despite its historical stigmatization. The correlation patterns between disease fears and Spiral Dynamics stages provide valuable insights for further refining healthcare communications to resonate with different value systems.


The comparative data between HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 fears, particularly their different correlation patterns with Spiral Dynamics stages, suggests that disease characteristics interact with value systems to produce distinct psychological responses. As the article argues, effective healthcare campaigns must continue to evolve based on evidence rather than prejudice. The SDTEST® data offers this evidence, demonstrating how fears of specific conditions correlate with different psychological frameworks and value systems.


This integration of fear psychology, mathematical correlation, and Spiral Dynamics theory provides a robust foundation for developing increasingly sophisticated, psychologically informed healthcare messaging strategies that can effectively engage diverse populations across the spiral of human development.



Sources

[1] https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-campbell-40202785/
[2] https://www.bps.org.uk/blog/towards-more-inclusive-and-empowering-healthcare-campaigns


2025.02.28
FearpersonqualitiesprojectorganizationalstructureRACIresponsibilitymatrixCritical ChainProject Managementfocus factorJiraempathyleadersbossGermanyChinaPolicyUkraineRussiawarvolatilityuncertaintycomplexityambiguityVUCArelocatejobproblemcountryreasongive upobjectivekeyresultmathematicalpsychologyMBTIHR metricsstandardDEIcorrelationriskscoringmodelGame TheoryPrisoner's Dilemma
Valerii Kosenko
Vlasnik proizvoda SaaS SDTEST®

Valerii je 1993. godine stekao kvalifikaciju socijalnog pedagoga-psihologa i od tada primjenjuje svoje znanje u upravljanju projektima.
Valerii je magistrirao i kvalifikaciju menadžera projekta i programa 2013. godine. Tokom magistarskog programa upoznao se sa Planom puta projekta (GPM Deutsche Gesellschaft für Projektmanagement e. V.) i Spiral Dynamics.
Valerii je autor istraživanja neizvjesnosti V.U.C.A. koncept koji koristi spiralnu dinamiku i matematičku statistiku u psihologiji i 38 međunarodnih anketa.
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